Britain is booming. Not the economy, of course, but the population. According to new projections just published by Eurostat (the EU’s very own army of statistical data crunchers) the number of people living in the UK will grow by a quarter in the next 50 years. By then some 77 million people will be crammed together on this sceptred isle – making us easily the largest EU nation in terms of headcount, accounting for 1 in 6 of half a billion European comrades.

I’m almost relieved to know that I probably won’t still be around to experience this – there’s already barely room to swing a cat with just 60 million poor souls vying for available space. No need to get too bothered yet though. Population projections are simply that – projections, based on current trends plus assumptions about what will happen in the future. Eurostat itself calls them ‘what-if scenarios’ which “aim to provide information about the likely size and structure of the population”. There is no guarantee things will pan out exactly as assumed. All manner of things might happen. War, climate change or pestilence could make a big difference to the outlook (fortunately famine isn’t on the cards, we Brits being too prone to binge eating and drinking for that).

The big ‘what if’ is the outlook for immigration. Net migration (statisticians love to talk complex) accounts for at least half the projected rise in UK population (more when you note that immigrants, being younger than the average person, are also more active when it comes to driving up the birth rate). Yet we also know that immigrants are fickle. As UK Home Office figures published last week show, the number of people from Eastern Europe crossing our shores in search of work has started to dwindle. Half those who have arrived since 2004 have since gone back home. All of a sudden dinner party talk of a proliferation of Poles is being replaced by wonderment at their apparent rarity.

The only real demographic certainty we can look forward to is population ageing. Even if immigration continues at a high rate Britain will be getting greyer. By 2060 1 in 4 Brits are projected to be aged 64 or above and 1 in 10 aged over 80 (roughly double the current proportions). Without immigration the ‘oldie rate’ will be higher. We all know this. We talk about it as much as we do about immigration. But I’m still not convinced that we – organisations, the HR community or society at large – have fully woken up to the implications.


John Philpott will be speaking at the CIPD annual conference and exhibition in Harrogate, on 16-18 September.