“Don’t know why, there’s no sun up in the sky, stormy weather...” So sang renowned black American entertainer Lena Horne, whose death at the age of 92 was sadly announced this morning. An omen for our troubled political and economic times, perhaps? Not judging by today’s other news. It may be chilly outside but the sun is streaming through my window and there is no sign of a storm. More to the point, EU finance ministers agreed a massive £430 billion stability deal overnight, with IMF support that should calm financial markets in the wake of the Greek fiscal crisis and indirectly provides some breathing space for UK politicians as they determine who will govern our country after last week’s indecisive general election result.
The consensus of opinion over the weekend was that a UK political settlement was needed before the markets opened at 8am in order to avoid a panic. Thanks to the EU deal, this has not happened. But given the size of our own fiscal deficit the sooner we know who will be managing UK economic policy, and what kind of policy they will be pursuing, the better.
As we start the week it looks as though David Cameron will replace Gordon Brown as prime minister. Ironically, after an election campaign during which the Conservatives warned "vote Clegg, get Brown", the likelihood is that the Liberal Democrats will either partner the Conservatives to a parliamentary majority or at the very least ensure that Gordon Brown can’t remain in Downing Street. But what precisely would a new Conservative government do in terms of economic policy?
David Cameron might decide to head a minority administration without the formal support of other parties, but doesn’t have a clear popular mandate for the economic policy platform on which he fought the election. This explains the Tory leader’s friendly overtures to Nick Clegg, without whose active or passive acquiescence Cameron can’t guarantee safe parliamentary passage for a Conservative budget. What we don’t know, however, is what Cameron will have to do to get and keep the Liberal Democrats onside.
Assuming the Conservatives hold firm to their long-standing opposition to electoral reform that might result in a full blown system of proportional representation – which is the main stumbling block to a truly close relationship with the Liberal Democrats - a coalition or looser agreement with Clegg and co would presumably have to be based on some compromise over economic policy “in the national interest”. In other words, Cameron’s desire to get cracking on cutting the fiscal deficit this year would in some way be moderated by the Liberal Democrats’ fear that doing so would put the fragile economic recovery at risk (a fear shared by the Labour government and, for what it’s worth, me as well).
What this would mean of course is that in order to secure the political stability necessary to be seen to pursue a stable economic policy, we could well end up with an economic policy mix that nobody voted for last week. This might or might not be sensible and in the national interest – only time, and the precise detail of any compromise agreement, will tell. But it does prove that what was once called “political economy” is a funny old game. No wonder the electorate is hung up about it.